Will Climate Go Over The Edge?

Transcrição

1 GRUPO 4 TIPO A L.I. 1 Língua Inglesa Questões de 01 a 06 Read the text carefully. Then complete the activities according to it. Will Climate Go Over The Edge? Even a miracle of diplomacy wouldn't put global warming back in its box. Fred Guterl NEWSWEEK From the magazine issue dated Mar 2, There is something compelling, in a ghoulish sort of way, about the notion that earth's climate may be headed toward a tipping point. The idea gained broad currency in 2007, when a panel of scientists, including Harvard environmental expert John Holdren now the White House science adviser warned that the planet is approaching a threshold beyond which damage to the environment would be irreversible. As policymakers work toward a climate treaty in Copenhagen in December that will include new limits on emissions, the question in the back of everyone's mind is whether an agreement can halt the warming trend, or at least stave off the worst consequences. Or is it already too late? A definitive answer isn't forthcoming, but the signs in recent months have been gloomy. The truth is shrouded by a big scientific unknown: how quickly does climate respond to changes in carbon levels? After 30 years of research, the link between the two is still imprecise. That's why temperature trends are expressed within wide confidence intervals. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the U.N. group, puts the odds at two in three that a doubling of carbon levels in the atmosphere from preindustrial levels would raise average temperatures anywhere from 2 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C. The difference between the top and bottom of this range, according to the 2007 report, spells the difference between bad and catastrophic. (Some scientists believe, for instance, that crop yields decline 10 percent for each degree rise in temperature.) Where future generations wind up on the scale or even if they fall on the scale at all is still a roll of the dice. Empirical evidence is worrying, but not particularly enlightening. Melting glaciers, changing bird-migration patterns and other observations suggest that warming is proceeding at a pace that may exceed past estimates in other words, we may be heading toward the top of the IPCC forecast. But they don't tell us much about natural variability. Arctic sea ice, for instance, is clearly shrinking faster than the climate-change computers predicted. How much is due to carbon and how much would the ice have retreated anyway? There's too little data to know comprehensive records on Arctic sea ice go back only to "The most likely bet is that the acceleration is due to greenhouse warming," says David Battisti, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle. "But I'd be nervous about making that bet. To know for certain we'd want a couple hundred years of data. We have 30 years of really good data." Since the real world is so messy, climate scientists Gerard Roe and Marcia Baker turned for insight to the distinctly neater world of mathematics. Last year, they published an analysis in the journal Science arguing that climate models were skewed in the direction of underestimating the warming effect of carbon. The report reasoned that carbon emissions have the potential to trigger many changes that amplify the warming effect water absorbs more sunlight than ice, humidity traps more heat, and so on but few that would mitigate it. The odds, they figure, are about one in three that temperatures will rise by 4.5 degrees C

2 L.I. 2 GRUPO 4 TIPO A (the top of the IPCC's range), but there's little chance at all that they'll rise by less than 2 degrees C. "We've had a hard time eliminating the possibility of very large climate changes," says Roe. The answer is still couched in probabilities, but they've shifted in a worrying direction. What can be done? Can a diplomatic miracle in Copenhagen save the planet from the dreaded tipping point? Sea ice in the Antarctic was supposed to last for 5,000 years until scientists found that the melting was proceeding at a faster pace than expected. Now it will all be gone in a mere 850 years. Bringing it back would require something like 10,000 years of cooler temperatures. Is there any way to halt the process before it goes too far? No, says Susan Solomon, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colorado. In a recent study in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science, she found that most of the carbon we've already released into the atmosphere will hang around for another 1,000 years. Even if world leaders somehow managed to persuade everybody to stop driving cars and heating their homes bringing carbon emissions down to zero immediately the Earth would continue to warm for centuries. The effect of rising temperatures on rainfall patterns is also irreversible, says Solomon. Parts of the world that tend to be dry (Mexico, north Africa, southern Europe and the western parts of Australia and the United States) will continue to get drier, while wet areas (the South Pacific islands, the horn of Africa) will keep getting wetter. "You have to think of it as being like a dial that can only turn one way," she says. "We've cranked up the dial, and we don't get to crank it back." The point of a climate treaty, then, isn't so much to roll things back as to keep them from getting a whole lot worse a worthy and important goal, if not a particularly inspiring one. If there's a silver lining to Solomon's findings, it's that she does not take into account the possibility of one day being able to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Since researchers around the world have only recently begun to ramp up projects on carbon capture and storage technology, the fix is wholly theoretical. Still, that's better than nothing. (In: < Access on: March 12, 2009) 01. Replace the words in bold by their synonyms. Use the following words: HARVESTS UNCERTAIN HIDDEN BETS The truth is (A) shrouded by a big scientific unknown: how quickly does climate respond to changes in carbon levels? After 30 years of research, the link between the two is still imprecise. That's why temperature trends are expressed within wide confidence intervals. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.N. group, (B) puts the odds at two in three that a doubling of carbon levels in the atmosphere from pre-industrial levels would raise average temperatures anywhere from 2 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C. The difference between the top and bottom of this range, according to the 2007 report, spells the difference between bad and catastrophic. (Some scientists believe, for instance, that (C) crop yields decline 10 percent for each degree rise in temperature.) Where future generations wind up on the scale or even if they fall on the scale at all is still (D) a roll of the dice. A) B) C) D)

3 GRUPO 4 TIPO A L.I Match the phrases with the appropriate equivalents. A) To go over the edge (title) ( ) to stay B) To stave off (line 08) ( ) to revert C) To hang around (line 52) ( ) to reduce D) To bring down (ine 54) ( ) to go beyond a limit E) To crank back (line 60) ( ) to prevent 03. Match the words in bold with their references. A) Last year, they published an analysis [ ] (lines 33-34) B) The report reasoned that carbon emissions have the potential to trigger many changes [ ] (lines 35-36) C) [ ]but few that would mitigate it. (line 37) D) [ ] they'll rise by less than 2 degrees C. (lines 39-40) References: ( ) The warming effect ( ) An analysis in the journal Science ( ) Temperatures ( ) Climate scientists, Gerard Roe and Marcia Baker 04. Write the names of: A) two parts of the world that are expected to get drier: B) two parts of the world that are expected to get wetter:

4 L.I. 4 GRUPO 4 TIPO A 05. Complete the blanks with the following words or phrases according to the information in the text: levels / centuries / Harvard / environmental / change / White House A) John Holdren works at and more recently also at the as a science adviser. He warned that the damage is about to become irreversible. B) Scientists do not know exactly how carbon dioxide affect climate. C) David Battisti defends that it is necessary to collect data during in order to get more precise information on global warming. 06. Write T (true) or F (false): A) Nowadays scientists have precise answers about global warming. B) The text presents a pessimistic future for the climate and the environment in our planet. C) Global warming can be definitely reduced as long as we reduce carbon emissions. D) Antarctic ice is now expected to be gone in less than 1000 years. E) Scientists say that dry regions will become cooler with global warming.

5 GRUPO 4 TIPO A L.P.L.B. 5 LÍNGUA PORTUGUESA E LITERATURA BRASILEIRA Questões de 07 a 12 Para resolver as questões 07 e 08, leia atentamente a tirinha apresentada a seguir. 07. A partir do que é apresentado na tirinha, que avaliação se pode fazer do Acordo Ortográfico de 2009? Justifique sua resposta.

6 L.P.L.B. 6 GRUPO 4 TIPO A 08. Leia o fragmento de texto apresentado a seguir. Cipro Neto conta uma história divertida. Num vagão de trem em Portugal, sentou-se à frente dele uma senhora que lia um tablóide policial intitulado O Crime. O professor leu e releu as manchetes e não entendeu metade delas. Não por razões remotamente relacionadas à ortografia, claro, mas pelas expressões que, num texto de cunho popular, tornam o português lusitano quase estrangeiro para um brasileiro [...]. (BOSCOV, I. A última do português. In: Revista Veja, ed. 2093, 31 dez. 08, p. 195) A) A história relatada no trecho acima funciona como argumento favorável ou desfavorável à tese de que a Reforma Ortográfica de 2009 unificará a língua portuguesa? Justifique sua resposta. B) Pode-se afirmar que a palavra claro, no trecho transcrito acima, sinaliza o posicionamento do autor sobre a Reforma Ortográfica de 2009? Por quê?

7 GRUPO 4 TIPO A L.P.L.B As regras antigas eram difíceis, e as novas continuam a sê-lo. Ninguém sabia usar o hífen e todos continuam sem sabê-lo. (BOSCOV, I. A última do português. In: Revista Veja, ed. 2093, 31 dez. 08, p. 197). Identifique os termos ou as expressões a que se refere cada um dos pronomes destacados acima.

8 L.P.L.B. 8 GRUPO 4 TIPO A 10. Explique as características do gênero teatral expresso no título da obra Auto da Compadecida e defina o papel da personagem Compadecida na peça de Ariano Suassuna.

9 GRUPO 4 TIPO A L.P.L.B Leia o trecho de Sarapalha apresentado a seguir....não adiantou ter sido tão direito... Se ele, Primo Argemiro, tivesse tido coragem... Se tivesse sido mais esperto... Talvez ela gostasse... Podia ter querido fugir com ele; o boiadeiro ainda não tinha aparecido... Agora, ela havia de se lembrar, achando que era um pamonha, um homem sem decisão... E, no entanto, viera para a fazenda só por causa dela... Primo Ribeiro não punha malícia em coisa nenhuma... Sim, os dois tinham sido bem tolos, só o homem de fora era quem sabia lidar com mulher!... (ROSA, J. G. Sagarana. Rio de Janeiro: Nova Fronteira, 65. impr., 2001, p. 165) No trecho citado, Primo Argemiro faz alusões a episódios decisivos de Sarapalha. Explique a relação entre os episódios mencionados e o desfecho do conto.

10 L.P.L.B. 10 GRUPO 4 TIPO A 12. Leia os seguintes poemas de João Cabral de Melo Neto: O mar e o canavial O que o mar sim aprende do canavial: a elocução horizontal de seu verso: a geórgica de cordel, ininterrupta, narrada em voz e silêncio paralelos. O que o mar não aprende do canavial: a veemência passional da preamar; a mão-de-pilão das ondas na areia, moída e miúda, pilada do que pilar. O que o canavial sim aprende do mar: o avançar em linha rasteira da onda; o espraiar-se minucioso, de líquido, alagando cova a cova onde se alonga. O que o canavial não aprende do mar: o desmedido do derramar-se da cana; o comedimento do latifúndio do mar, que menos lastradamente se derrama. O canavial e o mar O que o mar sim ensina ao canavial: o avançar em linha rasteira da onda; o espraiar-se minucioso, de líquido, alagando cova a cova onde se alonga. O que o canavial sim ensina ao mar: a elocução horizontal de seu verso; a geórgica de cordel, ininterrupta, narrada em voz e silêncio paralelos. 2 O que o mar não ensina ao canavial: a veemência passional da preamar; a mão-de-pilão das ondas na areia, moída e miúda, pilada do que pilar. O que o canavial não ensina ao mar: o desmedido do derramar-se da cana; o comedimento do latifúndio do mar, que menos lastradamente se derrama. (MELO NETO, J. C. A educação pela pedra. Rio de Janeiro:Alfaguara, 2008, p.201, 211) Explique o tipo de organização que une e distingue, ao mesmo tempo, os poemas O mar e o canavial e O canavial e o mar.

11 GRUPO 2 TIPO A 11 B R A N C O